Overview
Mercy For Animals partners with major institutions, including school districts and government assistance agencies, to reduce the meat, dairy, and eggs served through these institutions by at least 20 percent.
We evaluate the impact of Mercy For Animals’ food policy program by estimating the number of animals potentially spared through policies the program secures.
Our estimates are based on the assumption that decreased consumer demand for a product through these policies leads to decreased supply of that product.
We estimate how many fewer animals could be born into factory farming because of Mercy For Animals’ food policy program, which decreases demand for meat, dairy, and eggs at major institutions.
Calculating Animals Spared
Estimating Animals Killed for Meals Eaten Per Capita
To begin, we estimate the number of animals eaten per meal in a given region to meet demand for meat. We also estimate the number of end-of-production hens and cows killed per meal eaten to meet demand for eggs and milk.
To find the first number, we use statistics on the annual per capita consumption in kilograms of the following: chicken, pork, beef, and fish. To find the second, we use the annual per capita consumption of eggs and liters of milk.
The meat consumption figures are converted to number of animals by dividing the annual per capita consumption in kilograms by the average weight of an animal after processing.
For example, in Brazil, annual per capita consumption of chicken is 41.1 kilograms, according to Associação Brasileira de Proteína Animal. The average weight of one chicken after processing is 2.3 kilograms, as reported by Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. If we divide 41.1 by 2.3, the result—18.1—is our estimate for the number of chickens eaten per person each year in Brazil.
Our calculation for end-of-production hens and cows killed for meals eaten per capita differs from our meat consumption calculation.
One major difference is that life expectancy is a factor. A single hen produces eggs for about 1.4 years before production declines and she is sent to slaughter. A cow at a dairy farm produces milk for about five years before she is sent to slaughter. These figures vary slightly by region, and where regional averages are available, we use them.
We start with the estimated annual per capita consumption of milk in liters and the estimated annual per capita consumption of eggs in units. We divide these numbers by the average number of liters produced by one cow in a year and the average number of eggs produced by one hen in a year, respectively. Finally, we divide the results by the life expectancy in years (at a factory farm) of one cow and one hen.
For example, in Brazil, annual per capita egg consumption is 190. A hen at a factory farm produces about 220 eggs a year, according to the Associação Brasileira de Proteína Animal. We divide 190 by 220 to calculate the number of hens required to produce enough eggs for one person for one year in Brazil. In this case, the number is a decimal: 0.86. Because factory-farmed hens live for about 1.4 years, we divide this decimal by 1.4.
Model Equation:
KgsBeefPerCapita / AvgKgCattle = CattleEatenPerCapita
KgsPorkPerCapita / AvgKgPigs = PigsEatenPerCapita
KgsChickenPerCapita / AvgKgChickens = ChickensEatenPerCapita
KgsFishPerCapita / AvgKgFish = FishEatenPerCapita
(EggsPerCapita / EggsPerHen) / 1.4 = HensKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita
(MilkPerCapita / MilkPerCow) / 5 = CowsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita
CattleEatenPerCapita + PigsEatenPerCapita + ChickensEatenPerCapita + FishEatenPerCapita + HensKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita + CowsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita = AnimalsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita
Definitions:
KgsBeefPerCapita: Kilograms of beef consumed per person per year in the region
KgsPorkPerCapita: Kilograms of pork consumed per person per year in the region
KgsChickenPerCapita: Kilograms of chicken consumed per person per year in the region
KgsFishPerCapita: Kilograms of fish consumed per person per year in the region
EggsPerCapita: Number of eggs consumed per person per year in the region
MilkPerCapita: Liters of milk consumed per person per year in the region
AvgKgCattle: Average weight of an individual animal after processing, expressed in kilograms
AvgKgPigs: Average weight of an individual pig after processing, expressed in kilograms
AvgKgChickens: Average weight of an individual chicken after processing, expressed in kilograms
AvgKgFish: Average weight of an individual fish after processing, expressed in kilograms
EggsPerHen: Average number of eggs a hen produces in one year
CattleEatenPerCapita: Number of cattle eaten per person per year in the region
PigsEatenPerCapita: Number of pigs eaten per person per year in the region
ChickensEatenPerCapita: Number of chickens raised for meat eaten per person per year in the region
FishEatenPerCapita: Number of fish eaten per person per year in the region
HensKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita: Number of end-of-production hens killed for meals eaten per person per year in the region
CowsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita: Number of end-of-production cows killed for meals eaten per person per year in the region
Estimating Animals Spared per Year
First, the model multiplies the number of meals eaten per person per day in the region by the total population of the region. It multiplies the result by 365 days in a year to arrive at the total meals eaten per year.
Second, it calculates the number of animals killed per year for meals eaten by multiplying the total population by the number of animals killed for meals eaten per capita. It divides the result by the number of meals eaten per year to arrive at the number of animals killed per meal eaten.
Third, it determines the total number of meals served by the committed institution by multiplying the number of meals served per day by the number of people served. It multiplies the result by the days per year the institution serves meals—schools, for example, operate for only about 180 days per year—to arrive at the total number of meals served. The model multiplies the total number of meals served by the percentage of days the institution has committed to serving plant-based meals. The result is the total number of plant-based meals served.
Finally, to arrive at the number of animals spared per year by the institution’s policy once fully implemented, the method multiplies the number of animals killed for meat, dairy, and eggs per meal in the region by the number of plant-based meals served by the institution.
Model Equation:
MealsEatenPerDay x TotalPopulation x 365 = MealsEatenPerYear
AnimalsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita x TotalPopulation = AnimalsKilledPerYearForMealsEaten
AnimalsKilledPerYearForMealsEaten / MealsEatenPerYear = AnimalsKilledPerMealEaten
MealsServedPerDay x PeopleServed x DaysOfYear = TotalMealsServed
TotalMealsServed x PercentageOfDaysCommitted = PlantBasedMealsServed
AnimalsKilledPerMealEaten x PlantBasedMealsServed = AnnualAnimalsSpared
Definitions:
MealsEatenPerDay: Estimated number of meals eaten per person per day in the region
Total Population: Number of people in the region
MealsEatenPerYear: Meals eaten per day by the region’s total population multiplied by 365 days in a year
AnimalsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita: Number of animals killed to fulfill one person’s annual consumption of meat, dairy, and eggs in the region
AnimalsKilledPerYearForMealsEaten: AnimalsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita multiplied by the region’s total population
AnimalsKilledPerMealEaten: AnimalsKilledPerYearForMealsEaten divided by MealsEatenPerYear
MealsServedPerDay: Number of meals served per day by committed institution
PeopleServed: Number of people served by committed institution
DaysOfYear: Number of days per year the committed institution serves meals
TotalMealsServed: MealsServedPerDay multiplied by PeopleServed multiplied by DaysOfYear
PercentageOfDaysCommitted: Percentage of DaysOfYear that institution has committed to serving plant-based meals
PlantBasedMealsServed: TotalMealsServed multiplied by PercentageOfDaysCommitted
AnnualAnimalsSpared: AnimalsKilledPerMealEaten multiplied by PlantBasedMealsServed
Considerations
Animals Killed for Meals Eaten Per Capita
The metric AnimalsKilledForMealsEatenPerCapita used in the animals spared model factors in animals killed to provide meat, dairy, and eggs to both adults and children.
Because Mercy For Animals’ food policy program obtains commitments from schools, which primarily serve children, as well as public institutions that serve adults, the AnnualAnimalsSpared estimate may be smaller than reported for policies that impact children and larger than reported for policies that impact adults.
Animals Killed for Meals Eaten Per Capita vs Annual Regional Slaughter Rates
Our estimates factor in consumption rates rather than regional slaughter numbers. We believe consumption rates provide a closer estimate of animals affected by a policy, since slaughter rates may include animals killed for export.
Invertebrate Animals
Our current estimates do not include invertebrate animals killed for meat or as byproducts of fishing. The lives of shrimp and other crustaceans are no less important but certainly more difficult to measure. We aim to estimate the invertebrate animals killed in future models.
Animals Spared per Year
The animals spared model estimates animals spared per year once the policy is fully implemented.
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